It’s interesting to consider how this could theoretically play out if Donald Trump were truly serious about making Canada the 51st state — which, of course, he isn’t. Trump has floated the idea a few times, mostly as a headline-grabbing statement rather than a serious policy proposal. But if he genuinely wanted to absorb Canada into the United States, there’s a surprisingly straightforward way he could do it — without tariffs, military action, or political confrontation.
The strategy would revolve around creating a large-scale brain drain from Canada to the U.S. Trump could simply offer U.S. citizenship (or at least permanent residency) to any Canadian citizen, no strings attached. Just prove you’re Canadian and you’re in. About 25% of Canadians would likely take him up on that offer — but it wouldn’t be a random 25%. It would be the high earners, business owners, and ambitious professionals — the people who drive the Canadian economy and pay most of the taxes that fund Canada’s social programs.
Those who rely more heavily on Canada’s social safety net — like healthcare, unemployment benefits, and public pensions — would be less likely to leave. After all, the U.S. doesn’t have a comparable social safety net. But the high earners and entrepreneurs? They’d be motivated by the higher income potential, lower taxes, and greater business opportunities in the U.S. If 20%–25% of Canada’s economic contributors left within a few years, Canada’s tax base would shrink dramatically, putting immense pressure on its ability to sustain public services.
Why This Could Work (But Also Why It Probably Wouldn’t)
Of course, Trump couldn’t simply sign an executive order granting U.S. citizenship to Canadians — that would require congressional approval, which is unlikely given the current political climate. However, Trump could use executive authority to adjust green card or visa processing rules specifically for Canadians. For example, he could create a fast-track pathway for Canadian nationals to obtain green cards or offer temporary work visas with easier transitions to permanent residency.
Even without direct citizenship, a streamlined green card process would likely attract 15%–20% of Canada’s high earners and business leaders to the U.S. over time. The economic effects would be slower but just as damaging for Canada — a shrinking tax base, reduced business investment, and political pressure to seek closer economic ties with the U.S.
Trump Doesn’t Hate Canadians — He Likes Them
It’s worth pointing out that Trump doesn’t have anything against Canadians. He has publicly stated multiple times that he has many Canadian friends and generally speaks positively about Canada. This wouldn’t be about punishing Canada — it would be a calculated economic play. The goal wouldn’t be to harm Canada directly, but rather to strengthen the U.S. economy by attracting Canada’s most valuable human capital.
It’s Already Happening — Just Slowly
This dynamic is already happening on a smaller scale. Canada has long faced a “brain drain” problem where top talent leaves for the U.S. due to better business opportunities and lower taxes. Successful Canadians like Kevin O'Leary have already established themselves in the U.S., citing the friendlier business environment and higher earning potential. O’Leary has spoken openly about why he spends most of his time in the U.S. — and he’s not alone.
If Trump made it easier for Canadians to immigrate — even without direct citizenship — that trend would accelerate significantly. The U.S. would benefit from an influx of skilled professionals, business leaders, and capital, while Canada would face growing economic instability.
The Political Reality
That said, there are significant political and practical challenges that would make this difficult to execute. First, offering U.S. citizenship or green cards to Canadians on a large scale would likely face strong resistance in Congress — even among Trump’s allies — due to the broader political sensitivities around immigration. Second, Canada would likely respond with countermeasures to retain its talent, such as tax incentives or business-friendly reforms. Finally, the political backlash within Canada would make any formal alignment with the U.S. extremely controversial.
A Thought Experiment — Not a Prediction
As a business & management consultant, I find it fascinating to explore the economic and political ripple effects of migration policies. This is purely a thought experiment — not a prediction or political statement. Trump’s past comments about annexing Canada are almost certainly rhetorical, not strategic. But if he were serious, this approach would be far more effective than tariffs or trade barriers. Attracting Canada’s most ambitious and economically productive citizens would weaken Canada from within — and strengthen the U.S. in the process.
In the end, it’s unlikely Trump would ever pursue such a strategy — it’s too subtle and too long-term for his usual political style. But if he were serious about making Canada the 51st state, this would be the most effective way to do it.